Saturday, 18 August 2012

What will happen to Afghanistan in 2014?

Some time ago, BFTF was talking to someone from Stop The War about the situation in Afghanistan. He commented that he wanted the US troops out of Afghanistan as soon as possible. I asked him whether his priority was for the US troops to leave or for the Afghani people to have a better life, pointing out that the last time the US left Afghanistan to its own devices, the country quickly descended into civil war, with Muslim killing Muslim. His reply was so long as it was Afghan killing Afghan, it was their own problem to sort out.

His comment really disturbed BFTF, and came back to mind on reading an article by Patrick Bury, a former army Captain who served in Afghanistan, describes how the all sides are now gearing up for the withdrawal of NATO forces in 2014:

"Northern warlords are already re-arming in preparation for the coming civil war with the southern Pashtuns after NATO withdraws. ANSF troops occupying the ‘transitioned territories’ marked as green areas on headquarters’ maps are increasingly confined to their bases and will be more so when the West leaves."

This leaves the frightning possibility that Afghanistan will see a re-run of the 1990s when, according to Human Rights Watch :
"Battles for control of 1993-1995 destroyed at least one-third of the city, killed thousands of civilians, and drove a half million refugees to Pakistan. As party leaders frequently had only nominal control over their commanders, much of the northremained a patchwork of fiefdoms under the authority of various warlords. For civilians there was little security from murder, rape and extortion."

So far as BFTF can tell, not a single Muslim majority country did anything tangible to stop the killing - and it is reasonable to expect that they will be content to watch the killing from the sidelines again, no doubt whilst blaming everything on the US.

One would hope that the organisations in the UK that claim to represent British Muslims will also have thought about this issue and are making efforts to ensure that Afghanistan does not descend into a bloodbath come 2014.

So BFTF has asked the MCB and the ISB.

what their efforts were in this area (the MAB has no way, so far as BFTF can see, for ordinary people to email it).

Will let you know what feedback BFTF gets.

UPDATE : 9th Dec 2012:Having had no response, chased up the MCB again

UPDATE : 8th Jan 2013:Having had no response, chased up the MCB again

UPDATE : 3rd Mar 2013:Having had no response, chased up the MCB again

UPDATE : 29th Mar 2013:Having had no response, chased up the MCB again

UPDATE : 15th Apr 2013:Having had no response, and noting that a Commons Committee has said that civil war is likely in 2014, chased up the MCB again

UPDATE : 2nd Sep 2014:An Al-Jazeera article comments that :

"As the country's political crisis lingers and the US-led NATO forces begin to pull out, coordinated assaults by the Taliban - consisting of hundreds, sometimes even thousands of fighters - targeting strategic areas across the country...."

"...armed [local militia] groups, who operate in a culture of impunity, are growing increasingly volatile, creating more problems for civilians."

Asked the MCB what they were doing to stop Afghanistan falling into civil war, again.

UPDATE : Oct 2014: Emailed and Tweeted to MCB again...

What will be the fate of Afghanistans children
if the country desends into civil war again?
Image Source : Wikipedia

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